Stock Selection

We select stocks that will benefit from changes in investor expectations resulting from major economic events before these changes are fully recognized in market prices.  This discipline for the selection of stocks deals with three basic principles of economic and political reality.

The ability to correctly anticipate the changes in investor expectations resulting from major economic events -- macro shocks -- has historically resulted in superior investment performance.  Except at times when we're making major moves in or out of stocks, our turnover tends to be low.

Stocks whose fundamentals meet these requirements are combined into relatively low-risk portfolios.  We're long-term investors, not traders, but we're quick to sell a stock when its fundamentals are deteriorating or when its price is substantially above its normalized valuation level.

Impacts of major economic events have relatively long time lags.  Therefore, market factors themselves tell us when to shift portfolios to favorable industry groups and companies--and avoid those that are not in favor.